New York City Public Schools (NYCPS) made meaningful strides in improving student outcomes during the two decades leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic. Previous Research Alliance analyses have shown that NYC’s high school graduation and college enrollment rates increased steadily during this period. But COVID-19 brought about unprecedented global disruptions to education. In recent years, there has been a good deal of research documenting pandemic-related learning loss, including steep drops in test scores (e.g., Kuhfeld et al., 2022; Fahle et al., 2024), attendance rates (e.g., Swiderski et al., 2024), and overall enrollment (e.g., Roy and Nguyen-Hoang, 2022). This spotlight post focuses on another critical marker of students’ academic progress and success: their graduation from high school and subsequent enrollment in college. The post is the first in a series examining disparities in the impact of COVID-19 on NYC high school students, funded by the Center on Reinventing Public Education (CRPE). Ultimately, this work is aimed not only at understanding the pandemic’s effects on postsecondary outcomes, but also how these effects varied for different groups of students. 

To see how pathways through high school and into college have shifted, our analysis follows eight cohorts of first-time 9th graders, for a total of 485,786 students. We begin with students who started in a NYC high school in 2012 and were scheduled to graduate in 2016. The analysis ends with students who entered a NYC high school in 2019 and were scheduled to graduate in 2023. Thus, our sample includes four cohorts expected to graduate before COVID-19 and four cohorts who should have graduated during or after the pandemic. 

The slideshow below offers several different ways of looking at high school outcomes for each of the eight cohorts of students. Slide 1 shows the percentage of students who did and did not graduate from high school on time (i.e., by the end of summer following their fourth year of high school). Slide 2 allows us to take a closer look at students in the “didn’t graduate” category, distinguishing between those who dropped out and those who stayed enrolled in a NYC high school. Slide 3 provides more detailed information about the “graduated on time” group. Here we see the percentage of students who enrolled in a two-year college, the percentage who enrolled in a four-year college, and the percentage who graduated on time but did not immediately enroll (i.e., within one semester) in any kind of postsecondary education. Taken together, this paints a nuanced picture of how students’ transitions out of high school and into college changed in New York City in the wake of COVID-19.

Slide 1 reveals steady improvements in New York City’s overall high school graduation rate, rising from 79 percent in 2016 to 85 percent in 2019 (before COVID-19 hit) and further increasing to 90 percent in 2023. This result aligns with research from around the country indicating that high school graduation rates were largely unaffected by COVID-19. ^{[1] Endnote details} As shown in Slide 2, the dropout rate was cut in half between 2016 and 2021 (from 6.3 to 3.1 percent) and then hovered a little above 3 percent in 2022 and 2023. The rate of “persisting students” (i.e., those still enrolled in high school after four years) also declined markedly during this period, falling from 15 percent in 2016 to under 7 percent in 2023. 

Slide 3 provides a more detailed view of the outcomes for students who graduated from high school on time. Before COVID-19, the percentage of students who graduated but did not immediately enroll in college was around 18 or 19 percent. Similarly, the percentage of students enrolling in a two-year college remained stable during these years, at 21 or 22 percent. Four-year college enrollment notably increased during this period, rising from 37 percent in 2016 to 44 percent in 2019. 

There was a noticeable shift in these patterns after the pandemic began. The percentage of students who graduated but did not enroll in any college increased to 22 percent in 2020 and jumped to more than 28 percent in 2021 and 2022. College enrollment overall declined slightly in 2020, with a more dramatic shift in college-going patterns beginning in 2021. That year, enrollment in two-year colleges dropped to under 12 percent, where it stayed in 2022 and 2023 (from a peak of about 22 percent in 2019). This finding is consistent with national research showing declines in two-year college enrollment following the pandemic (e.g., Howell et al. 2021). During this same period, NYC students’ enrollment in four-year colleges actually increased. About 44 percent of students who graduated in 2020 enrolled in a four-year institution; this grew to 52 percent in 2023.

Overall, our analysis shows that the on-time high school graduation rate continued to improve, in spite of the pandemic. The transition from high school to college saw more upheaval, with increases in the percentage of students who graduated but did not enroll in any college, and a sharp decline in two-year college enrollment. It is not clear exactly why students opted out of two-year programs; among the plausible explanations are that students attended four-year programs instead (where growth in enrollment continued), opted to enter the workforce, or took a “gap” year.   

Given significant disparities in students’ educational experiences and outcomes linked to race/ethnicity, gender, disability, homelessness, poverty and English Learner status, it will be important to examine the trends outlined above for specific student subgroups. It is also crucial to understand the extent to which changes in graduation and college enrollment patterns in New York City are in fact attributable to the pandemic, versus other factors. Upcoming Spotlight posts will address these issues.

Big Questions

• What are the main reasons for the decline in two-year college enrollment after COVID-19? What were students doing instead (e.g., working? attending four-year schools? something else?)  One possible explanation is that students who intended to enroll in two-year colleges decided to delay their plans due to the effects of COVID-19. According to a 2020 survey (Howell et al., 2021), remote classes and the lack of on-campus amenities were key factors influencing students’ decisions to defer enrollment. Additionally, many students projected to attend two-year colleges were from underrepresented, lower-achieving groups and low-income backgrounds. The shift to remote learning, which required stable internet, access to devices, and quiet learning environments, may have been especially difficult for these students. Still, it is notable that two-year enrollment has continued to lag behind pre-pandemic levels. What factors might explain this trend?
• Conversely, what explains the increase in four-year college enrollment among NYC high school graduates? One possible explanation is that, as international student enrollment dropped significantly during the pandemic, some four-year colleges may have had smaller applicant pools than in prior years, which contributed to financial shocks. This pressure may have caused institutions to accept a higher percentage of domestic applicants and extend offers to more students from their waitlist. This could have resulted in some students who would typically go to two-year colleges enrolling in four-year institutions instead. That said, the increase in four-year enrollment has proved durable in New York City. What conditions have contributed to this change? 
• To what extent are the graduation and college enrollment patterns outlined above actually attributable to COVID-19? What would these trends have looked like if not for the pandemic? 
• Which high school students were most heavily affected by the pandemic? What new policies or practices could support students in their Covid “recovery”?  
• More broadly, what are key levers (e.g., access to college level courses, per pupil expenditures, stability of teaching staff) for improving equity in both high school graduation and college enrollment outcomes? 
• Looking ahead, how will college completion rates, in two- and four-year institutions, shift, if at all?

This post was authored by Xia Li, Kathryn Hill, and Clare Flack, with assistance on data visualizations from Erin Readling.