There is much to celebrate in New York City’s rising high school graduation rate—over the past decade, the percentage of students who earn their diploma in four years has steadily increased, and rates of college enrollment have largely kept pace. The related decline in high school dropout rates has also received a good deal of attention here in the City and around the country.
However, as we argue in our new brief, this binary focus—on students who either graduate on time or drop out of school entirely—misses an important group of students: those who do not complete high school in four years but remain enrolled (or reenroll) and continue making a good faith effort to earn their diploma (sometimes after temporarily dropping out). We describe this group as “persisting students.”
We decided to focus on persisting students because they currently constitute more than two thirds of the young people who do not graduate on time in New York City. Put differently, persisting students are a significantly larger group than those who drop out in four years and don’t return to school. And while there is solid base of research about students who drop out, less is known about those who stay enrolled in high school for more than four years. Understanding the trajectories of persisting students can help policymakers and educators develop more effective strategies for both prevention (i.e., identifying students early and getting them back on track to graduate in four years) and intervention (i.e., providing supports that help students succeed after they have fallen behind).
In this post we ask: How has the likelihood of becoming a persisting student changed over time in New York City? The figure below shows the percentage of students in each cohort of first-time 9th graders, between 2002 and 2010, who graduated on time, dropped out by the end of their fourth year of high school, and who persisted into their fifth or sixth year.
Percentage of 9th Graders Who Graduate On-Time, Permanently Drop Out Within Four Years, or "Persist" in High School, 2002-2010
As one might imagine, persisting students are not only a large group (numbering over 12,000 among the 2010 9th grade cohort), they are also a vulnerable population. As our brief describes, drawing on interviews with persisting students and further analyses of administrative data, persisting students have dealt with an array of challenges that have limited their capacity to graduate from high school on time. The brief examines students’ experiences and pathways through the system, the supports they found helpful, and their eventual outcomes—tackling some (but not all) of the big questions outlined below.
- What are the characteristics of persisting students, and which high schools do they attend? Are certain types of students more or less likely to become persisters?
- What happens to persisting students? How many of them are able to eventually earn a high school credential and go on to college? And how long does it take them to succeed?
- What systems are in place to identify and support persisting students? How effective are these systems?
- How have persisting students been affected by changing high school graduation requirements during the time period represented in the graph above?
What else should we be asking about persisting students? Let us know via email.
This post was authored by Zitsi Mirakhur and Kathryn Hill.
We count students who graduated in the summer after their fourth year of high school as on-time graduates. For this reason, student status “at the end of their fourth year of high school” is in fact measured as of October in the following school year.
Here we classify students who earn a Regent or local diploma as high school graduates.